NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST TLSA
Points 79.1 75.5
Total Points   154.7
Points From 2-Pointers 35.4 40.0
Points From 3-Pointers 28.4 17.5
Points From Free Throws 15.3 18.0
Shooting ARST TLSA
Field Goals Made 27.2 25.8
Field Goals Attempted 63.6 56.3
Field Goal % 42.7% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 35.5 38.5
2 Point Shooting % 49.9% 52.0%
3 Pointers Made 9.5 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 28.1 17.8
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 15.3 18.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.8 24.5
Free Throw % 70.2% 73.6%
Ball Control ARST TLSA
Rebounds 40.5 33.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.9 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 13.6 7.1
Turnovers 9.8 9.9
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.3
Steals 5.2 6.3
Fouls 17.1 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Tulsa

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST TLSA
Total Possessions 73.5
Effective Scoring Chances 77.3 70.7
% of Possessions with ARST TLSA
2 Point Attempt 40.2% 47.0%
3 Point Attempt 31.8% 21.7%
Player Fouled 19.4% 23.3%
Turnover 13.3% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST TLSA
Shot Blocked 5.9% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 33.9% 20.9%