NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARST TROY
Points 80.1 78.7
Total Points   158.8
Points From 2-Pointers 36.5 39.2
Points From 3-Pointers 26.9 21.2
Points From Free Throws 16.8 18.3
Shooting ARST TROY
Field Goals Made 27.2 26.7
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 60.2
Field Goal % 45.4% 44.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 35.0 41.1
2 Point Shooting % 52.1% 47.7%
3 Pointers Made 9.0 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 24.9 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 16.8 18.3
Free Throws Attempted 23.9 24.9
Free Throw % 70.2% 73.4%
Ball Control ARST TROY
Rebounds 38.2 35.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 11.6
Turnovers 11.6 10.2
Blocked Shots 4.6 3.8
Steals 5.9 8.6
Fouls 16.2 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARST TROY
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 74.9 75.0
% of Possessions with ARST TROY
2 Point Attempt 39.8% 47.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.3% 21.8%
Player Fouled 21.5% 22.0%
Turnover 15.8% 13.9%
Opponent Steal 11.7% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARST TROY
Shot Blocked 6.4% 7.9%
Offensive Rebound 35.0% 31.3%