NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SEMO UTM
Points 70.9 81.6
Total Points   152.5
Points From 2-Pointers 39.7 42.4
Points From 3-Pointers 21.6 19.1
Points From Free Throws 9.6 20.1
Shooting SEMO UTM
Field Goals Made 27.1 27.6
Field Goals Attempted 67.2 58.3
Field Goal % 40.3% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 21.2
2 Pointers Attempted 42.1 39.2
2 Point Shooting % 47.2% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 6.4
3 Pointers Attempted 25.1 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 28.7% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 9.6 20.1
Free Throws Attempted 13.6 26.6
Free Throw % 70.6% 75.6%
Ball Control SEMO UTM
Rebounds 34.4 42.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.2 33.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.2 9.2
Turnovers 8.4 9.6
Blocked Shots 3.1 2.6
Steals 4.7 5.0
Fouls 18.1 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: SE Missouri

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SEMO UTM
Total Possessions 74.6
Effective Scoring Chances 75.4 74.2
% of Possessions with SEMO UTM
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 46.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.6% 22.4%
Player Fouled 16.6% 24.3%
Turnover 11.3% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken SEMO UTM
Shot Blocked 4.5% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 21.8% 26.8%