NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMBC UVM
Points 68.4 76.1
Total Points   144.6
Points From 2-Pointers 37.8 35.1
Points From 3-Pointers 22.4 29.1
Points From Free Throws 8.2 11.9
Shooting UMBC UVM
Field Goals Made 26.4 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 62.5 63.6
Field Goal % 42.2% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 40.3 34.0
2 Point Shooting % 46.9% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 22.2 29.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.7% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 8.2 11.9
Free Throws Attempted 12.1 16.6
Free Throw % 67.9% 71.9%
Ball Control UMBC UVM
Rebounds 37.2 39.4
Rebounds - Defensive 29.9 30.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 8.7
Turnovers 10.0 7.8
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.6
Steals 3.5 6.5
Fouls 12.9 11.9

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland BC

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMBC UVM
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 69.5 73.1
% of Possessions with UMBC UVM
2 Point Attempt 49.8% 41.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.4% 36.0%
Player Fouled 16.4% 17.8%
Turnover 13.8% 10.8%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 4.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMBC UVM
Shot Blocked 5.7% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 19.2% 22.5%