NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMBC ALBY
Points 85.6 85.6
Total Points   171.2
Points From 2-Pointers 55.3 46.3
Points From 3-Pointers 18.0 26.4
Points From Free Throws 12.3 12.9
Shooting UMBC ALBY
Field Goals Made 33.7 31.9
Field Goals Attempted 64.4 71.6
Field Goal % 52.3% 44.6%
2 Pointers Made 27.7 23.2
2 Pointers Attempted 45.4 44.0
2 Point Shooting % 60.9% 52.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 27.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 31.9%
Free Throws Made 12.3 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.1 17.4
Free Throw % 67.9% 73.9%
Ball Control UMBC ALBY
Rebounds 36.7 39.1
Rebounds - Defensive 28.4 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 13.4
Turnovers 12.3 10.6
Blocked Shots 4.2 2.8
Steals 4.7 8.5
Fouls 12.2 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Albany

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMBC ALBY
Total Possessions 79.5
Effective Scoring Chances 75.5 82.3
% of Possessions with UMBC ALBY
2 Point Attempt 51.1% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 21.3% 29.2%
Player Fouled 19.8% 15.4%
Turnover 15.5% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMBC ALBY
Shot Blocked 4.0% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 32.1%