NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMBC SFPA
Points 81.2 70.5
Total Points   151.7
Points From 2-Pointers 45.0 38.2
Points From 3-Pointers 25.1 21.7
Points From Free Throws 11.0 10.7
Shooting UMBC SFPA
Field Goals Made 30.9 26.3
Field Goals Attempted 60.6 65.4
Field Goal % 50.9% 40.2%
2 Pointers Made 22.5 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 38.7 42.4
2 Point Shooting % 58.1% 45.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.9 23.0
3 Point Shooting % 38.2% 31.4%
Free Throws Made 11.0 10.7
Free Throws Attempted 16.2 17.8
Free Throw % 67.9% 60.1%
Ball Control UMBC SFPA
Rebounds 37.5 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 29.1 24.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 13.7
Turnovers 11.2 10.5
Blocked Shots 4.6 3.4
Steals 4.2 6.4
Fouls 12.6 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: St Fran (PA)

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMBC SFPA
Total Possessions 73.2
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 76.4
% of Possessions with UMBC SFPA
2 Point Attempt 46.7% 47.8%
3 Point Attempt 26.4% 25.9%
Player Fouled 20.4% 17.2%
Turnover 15.3% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMBC SFPA
Shot Blocked 5.3% 7.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 32.0%