NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMBC STON
Points 75.0 79.5
Total Points   154.5
Points From 2-Pointers 36.4 41.7
Points From 3-Pointers 29.5 24.6
Points From Free Throws 9.1 13.2
Shooting UMBC STON
Field Goals Made 28.0 29.1
Field Goals Attempted 65.0 66.7
Field Goal % 43.1% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 20.9
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 42.4
2 Point Shooting % 47.4% 49.2%
3 Pointers Made 9.8 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 26.6 24.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 33.7%
Free Throws Made 9.1 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 13.4 18.1
Free Throw % 67.9% 72.8%
Ball Control UMBC STON
Rebounds 37.7 42.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.3 30.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 11.1
Turnovers 10.3 8.4
Blocked Shots 2.4 2.7
Steals 4.0 6.6
Fouls 12.6 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland BC

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMBC STON
Total Possessions 75.2
Effective Scoring Chances 73.3 77.9
% of Possessions with UMBC STON
2 Point Attempt 45.4% 48.6%
3 Point Attempt 31.5% 27.9%
Player Fouled 16.7% 16.8%
Turnover 13.7% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMBC STON
Shot Blocked 4.1% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.3% 27.5%