NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMBC TOWS
Points 67.5 76.1
Total Points   143.5
Points From 2-Pointers 35.6 41.0
Points From 3-Pointers 22.9 21.5
Points From Free Throws 9.0 13.5
Shooting UMBC TOWS
Field Goals Made 25.4 27.7
Field Goals Attempted 59.1 67.1
Field Goal % 43.0% 41.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 43.7
2 Point Shooting % 47.0% 46.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 21.2 23.4
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 9.0 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 13.3 20.4
Free Throw % 67.9% 66.3%
Ball Control UMBC TOWS
Rebounds 31.5 47.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 28.8
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 18.5
Turnovers 11.5 9.3
Blocked Shots 3.4 4.2
Steals 3.9 7.1
Fouls 12.2 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Towson

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMBC TOWS
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.7 80.5
% of Possessions with UMBC TOWS
2 Point Attempt 47.4% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 26.6% 25.6%
Player Fouled 19.4% 17.1%
Turnover 16.1% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMBC TOWS
Shot Blocked 6.4% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 19.3% 42.9%