NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMBC UNH
Points 80.7 78.0
Total Points   158.7
Points From 2-Pointers 47.7 36.5
Points From 3-Pointers 24.3 28.6
Points From Free Throws 8.7 12.9
Shooting UMBC UNH
Field Goals Made 31.9 27.8
Field Goals Attempted 65.3 67.5
Field Goal % 48.9% 41.1%
2 Pointers Made 23.8 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.4 36.5
2 Point Shooting % 59.0% 50.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 9.5
3 Pointers Attempted 24.9 31.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 8.7 12.9
Free Throws Attempted 12.8 16.9
Free Throw % 67.9% 76.0%
Ball Control UMBC UNH
Rebounds 39.5 37.7
Rebounds - Defensive 32.0 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 7.5 9.5
Turnovers 12.1 10.2
Blocked Shots 4.2 1.7
Steals 5.0 7.8
Fouls 13.2 12.3

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland BC

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMBC UNH
Total Possessions 78.1
Effective Scoring Chances 73.5 77.4
% of Possessions with UMBC UNH
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 40.9%
3 Point Attempt 28.8% 34.7%
Player Fouled 15.7% 16.9%
Turnover 15.5% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 9.9% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMBC UNH
Shot Blocked 2.5% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 20.9% 22.9%