NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTSA USU
Points 70.2 87.2
Total Points   157.3
Points From 2-Pointers 31.4 45.9
Points From 3-Pointers 23.9 23.1
Points From Free Throws 14.9 18.1
Shooting UTSA USU
Field Goals Made 23.7 30.7
Field Goals Attempted 63.6 59.9
Field Goal % 37.3% 51.2%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 23.0
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 38.8
2 Point Shooting % 43.1% 59.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 7.7
3 Pointers Attempted 27.1 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 14.9 18.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 25.0
Free Throw % 71.1% 72.5%
Ball Control UTSA USU
Rebounds 35.8 40.1
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 32.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 8.1
Turnovers 9.4 7.7
Blocked Shots 2.6 5.2
Steals 4.2 5.3
Fouls 17.3 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Utah St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTSA USU
Total Possessions 74.2
Effective Scoring Chances 75.5 74.7
% of Possessions with UTSA USU
2 Point Attempt 41.9% 46.5%
3 Point Attempt 31.2% 25.3%
Player Fouled 20.0% 23.3%
Turnover 12.6% 10.3%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTSA USU
Shot Blocked 8.9% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 24.5%