NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSB UCI
Points 64.2 74.4
Total Points   138.6
Points From 2-Pointers 37.0 38.9
Points From 3-Pointers 12.6 14.7
Points From Free Throws 14.6 20.8
Shooting CSB UCI
Field Goals Made 22.7 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.4 51.9
Field Goal % 40.2% 46.9%
2 Pointers Made 18.5 19.4
2 Pointers Attempted 43.8 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 42.2% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 4.2 4.9
3 Pointers Attempted 12.6 14.0
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 14.6 20.8
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 27.5
Free Throw % 73.0% 75.7%
Ball Control CSB UCI
Rebounds 32.5 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 21.8 25.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 9.5
Turnovers 11.6 11.0
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.1
Steals 5.3 5.5
Fouls 19.4 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: UC Irvine

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSB UCI
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.1 68.4
% of Possessions with CSB UCI
2 Point Attempt 53.5% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 15.4% 17.2%
Player Fouled 23.0% 27.8%
Turnover 16.6% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSB UCI
Shot Blocked 6.2% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 29.4% 30.3%