NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTSA MTU
Points 75.5 73.4
Total Points   148.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.5 31.1
Points From 3-Pointers 23.4 27.1
Points From Free Throws 15.6 15.3
Shooting UTSA MTU
Field Goals Made 26.0 24.6
Field Goals Attempted 64.0 60.9
Field Goal % 40.7% 40.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.2 15.5
2 Pointers Attempted 40.6 34.5
2 Point Shooting % 44.9% 45.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.8 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 26.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 34.1%
Free Throws Made 15.6 15.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 21.4
Free Throw % 71.1% 71.4%
Ball Control UTSA MTU
Rebounds 41.8 38.6
Rebounds - Defensive 29.5 28.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.3 9.8
Turnovers 8.4 9.5
Blocked Shots 4.8 4.8
Steals 4.2 3.8
Fouls 15.4 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Middle Tenn

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTSA MTU
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 76.8 73.2
% of Possessions with UTSA MTU
2 Point Attempt 46.7% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 31.2%
Player Fouled 19.7% 21.1%
Turnover 11.5% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 5.3% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTSA MTU
Shot Blocked 8.0% 7.6%
Offensive Rebound 29.9% 24.9%