NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTSA WKU
Points 79.6 84.4
Total Points   164.1
Points From 2-Pointers 31.0 45.0
Points From 3-Pointers 31.6 24.3
Points From Free Throws 17.0 15.2
Shooting UTSA WKU
Field Goals Made 26.0 30.6
Field Goals Attempted 63.8 66.3
Field Goal % 40.8% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 15.5 22.5
2 Pointers Attempted 32.1 43.9
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 10.5 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 31.6 22.3
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 17.0 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 23.9 20.9
Free Throw % 71.1% 72.7%
Ball Control UTSA WKU
Rebounds 39.8 39.9
Rebounds - Defensive 29.1 30.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 9.2
Turnovers 10.8 9.5
Blocked Shots 5.4 4.1
Steals 4.8 6.0
Fouls 15.8 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: W Kentucky

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTSA WKU
Total Possessions 78.2
Effective Scoring Chances 78.1 77.9
% of Possessions with UTSA WKU
2 Point Attempt 35.5% 49.0%
3 Point Attempt 35.0% 24.9%
Player Fouled 21.2% 20.2%
Turnover 13.8% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTSA WKU
Shot Blocked 6.3% 8.6%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 24.1%