NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSB MISS
Points 64.1 76.0
Total Points   140.1
Points From 2-Pointers 36.6 34.0
Points From 3-Pointers 13.7 21.1
Points From Free Throws 13.8 20.9
Shooting CSB MISS
Field Goals Made 22.9 24.1
Field Goals Attempted 58.4 51.4
Field Goal % 39.2% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 44.0 33.1
2 Point Shooting % 41.5% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 4.6 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 14.4 18.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.9% 38.5%
Free Throws Made 13.8 20.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.9 28.6
Free Throw % 73.0% 73.0%
Ball Control CSB MISS
Rebounds 35.7 33.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 24.2
Rebounds - Offensive 13.6 9.7
Turnovers 12.3 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.6 5.5
Steals 5.4 7.1
Fouls 19.0 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Mississippi

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSB MISS
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.2 68.9
% of Possessions with CSB MISS
2 Point Attempt 51.9% 41.6%
3 Point Attempt 16.9% 22.9%
Player Fouled 20.0% 27.5%
Turnover 17.9% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSB MISS
Shot Blocked 10.8% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 36.0% 30.5%