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Toledo at Valparaiso
Tue Nov 9, 2021
7:00pm ET
Valparaiso, IN
Toledo at Valparaiso: Point Spread Analysis
Odds: Toledo by 4.5, Total Points: 143
ATS Situational Trends
| Record | TOL | adv | VALP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 15-17-0 | 18-13-0 | |
| vs Division | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 | |
| vs Conference | 8-11-0 | 12-9-0 | |
| Streak | L1 | L1 | |
| Last 5 | 2-3-0 | 3-2-0 | |
| Last 10 | 4-6-0 | 4-6-0 | |
| Home | 7-8-0 | 6-10-0 | |
| Away | 8-9-0 | 12-3-0 |
Toledo Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Detroit | -15.5 | W by 34 | +18.5 |
| 11/11 | Home | Louisiana | -7.5 | W by 9 | +1.5 |
| 11/14 | Away | Wright St | +2.5 | W by 1 | +3.5 |
| 11/21 | Neutral | New Mexico | +2.0 | L by 8 | -6.0 |
| 11/22 | Neutral | UC Irvine | +2.0 | L by 6 | -4.0 |
| 11/24 | Neutral | Indiana St | +4.0 | L by 2 | +2.0 |
| 12/02 | Home | Geo Mason | -4.5 | L by 9 | -13.5 |
| 12/06 | Away | Oakland | +1.0 | W by 1 | +2.0 |
| 12/09 | Home | N Iowa | -3.5 | W by 4 | +0.5 |
| 12/13 | Home | Marshall | -8.0 | W by 1 | -7.0 |
| 12/20 | Home | Vermont | -6.5 | L by 26 | -32.5 |
| 12/23 | Away | W Virginia | +4.5 | L by 10 | -5.5 |
| 01/02 | Away | Ohio | +2.0 | W by 9 | +11.0 |
| 01/05 | Home | Miami (OH) | -11.5 | W by 4 | -7.5 |
| 01/09 | Away | Kent St | +4.0 | W by 14 | +18.0 |
| 01/13 | Home | Ball St | -11.0 | W by 5 | -6.0 |
| 01/16 | Home | Buffalo | -15.0 | W by 11 | -4.0 |
| 01/19 | Away | Central Mich | -7.5 | L by 3 | -10.5 |
| 01/23 | Away | N Illinois | -5.5 | W by 16 | +10.5 |
| 01/27 | Home | Bowling Grn | -6.5 | W by 16 | +9.5 |
| 01/30 | Home | W Michigan | -11.5 | W by 25 | +13.5 |
| 02/02 | Away | Akron | +3.5 | L by 7 | -3.5 |
| 02/06 | Away | E Michigan | -11.5 | W by 4 | -7.5 |
| 02/10 | Away | App State | +6.5 | L by 5 | +1.5 |
| 02/16 | Home | Ohio | -5.5 | W by 2 | -3.5 |
| 02/20 | Home | Akron | -2.0 | W by 8 | +6.0 |
| 02/23 | Away | Bowling Grn | -4.0 | L by 8 | -12.0 |
| 02/27 | Home | N Illinois | -15.5 | L by 3 | -18.5 |
| 03/02 | Away | Buffalo | -10.5 | W by 6 | -4.5 |
| 03/05 | Away | Miami (OH) | -2.0 | W by 34 | +32.0 |
| 03/08 | Home | Kent St | -7.5 | W by 15 | +7.5 |
| 03/14 | Neutral | Kent St | -5.0 | L by 8 | -13.0 |
Valparaiso Detailed ATS Performance
| Date | H/A/N | Opponent | Line | Result | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Home | Trinity Christian | -- | W by 39 | -- |
| 11/10 | Home | IUPUI | -3.5 | L by 10 | -13.5 |
| 11/14 | Home | WI-Grn Bay | -3.5 | W by 5 | +1.5 |
| 11/17 | Away | Illinois | +29.5 | L by 23 | +6.5 |
| 11/21 | Home | W Illinois | -2.5 | W by 7 | +4.5 |
| 11/25 | Home | Southern | -3.0 | W by 12 | +9.0 |
| 11/29 | Home | Drake | +14.0 | L by 18 | -4.0 |
| 12/02 | Away | Belmont | +15.5 | L by 9 | +6.5 |
| 12/06 | Away | Central Mich | +3.5 | L by 4 | -0.5 |
| 12/09 | Away | VA Tech | +21.5 | L by 21 | +0.5 |
| 12/16 | Home | Chicago St | -3.0 | L by 1 | -4.0 |
| 12/19 | Home | Samford | +8.5 | L by 18 | -9.5 |
| 12/29 | Away | Elon | +5.0 | L by 4 | +1.0 |
| 01/03 | Home | Bradley | +10.5 | L by 25 | -14.5 |
| 01/06 | Away | IL-Chicago | +12.5 | L by 6 | +6.5 |
| 01/10 | Home | S Illinois | +9.5 | L by 9 | +0.5 |
| 01/14 | Away | Illinois St | +10.0 | W by 9 | +19.0 |
| 01/17 | Away | Evansville | +7.0 | L by 3 | +4.0 |
| 01/20 | Home | IL-Chicago | +3.5 | W by 7 | +10.5 |
| 01/24 | Away | S Illinois | +13.5 | L by 6 | +7.5 |
| 01/27 | Home | Missouri St | +4.0 | L by 11 | -7.0 |
| 01/31 | Away | Drake | +19.5 | L by 11 | +8.5 |
| 02/03 | Home | Evansville | -1.5 | L by 1 | -2.5 |
| 02/07 | Away | Indiana St | +20.5 | L by 40 | -19.5 |
| 02/10 | Home | Belmont | +6.5 | L by 18 | -11.5 |
| 02/14 | Home | N Iowa | +7.5 | L by 19 | -11.5 |
| 02/17 | Away | Missouri St | +13.0 | L by 8 | +5.0 |
| 02/21 | Home | Indiana St | +14.0 | L by 19 | -5.0 |
| 02/24 | Away | Murray St | +13.0 | L by 12 | +1.0 |
| 02/27 | Away | N Iowa | +16.0 | L by 14 | +2.0 |
| 03/03 | Home | Illinois St | +5.5 | W by 3 | +8.5 |
| 03/07 | Neutral | Belmont | +14.0 | L by 25 | -11.0 |
| TOL -4.5 | Open | -4.5 | High | -5.0 |
| Last | -5.0 | Low | -3.5 |
Line Movement
The chart above graphs odds data from a leading global sportsbook. Chart times are your local time zone.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Lines
Since the start of the 2016-2017 NCAA Basketball season there have been 1473 games where the closing line favored the away team by 3.5 to 5.5 points. In these games:
- The team like Toledo won the game 949 times (64.4%).
- The team like Valparaiso won the game 524 times (35.6%).
- The team like Valparaiso did better against the spread, going 728-723-22 (50.2% ATS) and covering the spread by an average of 0.4 points.
Historical Results of Games with Similar Line Movement
Since the start of the 2018-2019 NCAA Basketball season there have been 3236 games where the closing line favored the initial favorite by the same as the opening line.
In these games, the team like Toledo did better against the spread, going 1608-1577-51 (50.5% ATS).
Spread History
The table below lists odds from three leading global sportsbooks. Times below are Eastern time zone.
| Book 1 | Book 2 | Book 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | -4.5 | -4.0 | -5.0 |
| Open | -3.5 | -4.0 | -4.0 |
| History | |||
| 11/09 06:58 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 11/09 06:15 PM | -- | -- | -5.0 |
| 11/09 06:13 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 11/09 05:46 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 11/09 05:45 PM | -- | -4.0 | -- |
| 11/09 05:25 PM | -- | -- | -4.5 |
| 11/09 04:52 PM | -4.5 | -- | -- |
| 11/09 12:34 PM | -3.5 | -- | -- |
| 11/09 11:49 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 11/09 11:45 AM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 11/09 11:26 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 11/09 10:25 AM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 11/09 10:17 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 11/09 09:42 AM | -- | -4.0 | -- |
| 11/09 09:37 AM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 11/09 09:35 AM | -- | -- | -5.5 |
| 11/09 09:25 AM | -- | -- | -5.0 |
| 11/09 09:19 AM | -5.0 | -- | -- |
| 11/09 08:13 AM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 11/08 07:45 PM | -- | -- | -4.0 |
| 11/08 02:59 PM | -4.0 | -- | -- |
| 11/08 01:55 PM | -3.5 | -- | -- |
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