NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOL CMU
Points 77.1 71.8
Total Points   148.9
Points From 2-Pointers 41.2 43.4
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 18.9
Points From Free Throws 16.4 9.5
Shooting TOL CMU
Field Goals Made 27.1 28.0
Field Goals Attempted 61.4 60.0
Field Goal % 44.2% 46.7%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 21.7
2 Pointers Attempted 41.9 38.9
2 Point Shooting % 49.2% 55.8%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.5 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.4% 29.8%
Free Throws Made 16.4 9.5
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 14.1
Free Throw % 74.2% 67.1%
Ball Control TOL CMU
Rebounds 36.3 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 9.6
Turnovers 8.4 11.5
Blocked Shots 2.2 5.0
Steals 6.0 4.8
Fouls 12.6 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Central Mich

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOL CMU
Total Possessions 71.2
Effective Scoring Chances 74.1 69.2
% of Possessions with TOL CMU
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 47.7%
3 Point Attempt 23.1% 25.8%
Player Fouled 21.5% 17.7%
Turnover 11.8% 16.2%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOL CMU
Shot Blocked 8.4% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 30.5% 27.6%