NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TOL ND
Points 71.4 75.7
Total Points   147.2
Points From 2-Pointers 40.8 39.4
Points From 3-Pointers 16.8 25.4
Points From Free Throws 13.8 10.9
Shooting TOL ND
Field Goals Made 26.0 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 56.6
Field Goal % 45.1% 49.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.4 19.7
2 Pointers Attempted 40.9 33.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.0% 59.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 16.9 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 13.8 10.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.6 14.7
Free Throw % 74.2% 73.7%
Ball Control TOL ND
Rebounds 29.9 34.8
Rebounds - Defensive 21.6 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 8.9
Turnovers 8.8 11.9
Blocked Shots 2.2 3.3
Steals 6.2 5.3
Fouls 12.8 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Toledo

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TOL ND
Total Possessions 69.2
Effective Scoring Chances 68.7 66.2
% of Possessions with TOL ND
2 Point Attempt 51.9% 41.7%
3 Point Attempt 21.4% 29.9%
Player Fouled 21.0% 18.5%
Turnover 12.7% 17.3%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken TOL ND
Shot Blocked 6.0% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 24.2% 29.2%