NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WEBB NCCU
Points 75.5 70.5
Total Points   146.0
Points From 2-Pointers 36.6 35.8
Points From 3-Pointers 24.0 17.4
Points From Free Throws 14.9 17.2
Shooting WEBB NCCU
Field Goals Made 26.3 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 55.2
Field Goal % 45.9% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 34.0 37.5
2 Point Shooting % 53.9% 47.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.0 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.3 17.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 14.9 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 24.3 24.9
Free Throw % 61.5% 69.0%
Ball Control WEBB NCCU
Rebounds 38.8 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 26.9 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 9.0
Turnovers 10.1 9.7
Blocked Shots 2.8 2.0
Steals 4.3 5.3
Fouls 17.2 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Gard-Webb

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WEBB NCCU
Total Possessions 71.0
Effective Scoring Chances 72.8 70.3
% of Possessions with WEBB NCCU
2 Point Attempt 40.7% 46.3%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 21.8%
Player Fouled 23.0% 24.3%
Turnover 14.2% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 7.4% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken WEBB NCCU
Shot Blocked 3.6% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 32.4% 25.0%