NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring WEBB UNC
Points 63.3 85.9
Total Points   149.2
Points From 2-Pointers 31.3 43.3
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 22.2
Points From Free Throws 11.3 20.4
Shooting WEBB UNC
Field Goals Made 22.6 29.0
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 60.6
Field Goal % 37.3% 47.9%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 39.7 40.7
2 Point Shooting % 39.4% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.7 19.9
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 37.2%
Free Throws Made 11.3 20.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 27.1
Free Throw % 61.5% 75.4%
Ball Control WEBB UNC
Rebounds 32.2 44.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 33.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 11.4
Turnovers 10.6 7.7
Blocked Shots 2.2 4.7
Steals 3.9 5.8
Fouls 18.2 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Gard-Webb

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats WEBB UNC
Total Possessions 73.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.9 77.2
% of Possessions with WEBB UNC
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 23.2%
Player Fouled 20.0% 24.9%
Turnover 14.5% 10.5%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken WEBB UNC
Shot Blocked 7.8% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 19.7% 32.3%