NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SIU USM
Points 72.7 64.6
Total Points   137.3
Points From 2-Pointers 30.9 36.8
Points From 3-Pointers 25.4 12.1
Points From Free Throws 16.5 15.6
Shooting SIU USM
Field Goals Made 23.9 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 55.2 52.9
Field Goal % 43.3% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 31.3 39.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.3% 46.4%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 4.0
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 13.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 30.5%
Free Throws Made 16.5 15.6
Free Throws Attempted 21.3 22.2
Free Throw % 77.2% 70.5%
Ball Control SIU USM
Rebounds 34.5 33.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.0 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 8.2
Turnovers 10.2 10.8
Blocked Shots 2.6 5.3
Steals 6.2 5.7
Fouls 16.6 16.6

Playing Style Advantage: S Illinois

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SIU USM
Total Possessions 69.1
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 66.5
% of Possessions with SIU USM
2 Point Attempt 39.3% 50.6%
3 Point Attempt 30.0% 16.9%
Player Fouled 24.1% 24.0%
Turnover 14.8% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SIU USM
Shot Blocked 10.1% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.3% 24.0%