NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SIU MIZZ
Points 71.7 71.7
Total Points   143.4
Points From 2-Pointers 25.8 41.3
Points From 3-Pointers 26.2 13.8
Points From Free Throws 19.6 16.7
Shooting SIU MIZZ
Field Goals Made 21.6 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 51.4 53.1
Field Goal % 42.1% 47.5%
2 Pointers Made 12.9 20.6
2 Pointers Attempted 26.3 37.4
2 Point Shooting % 49.0% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.7 4.6
3 Pointers Attempted 25.1 15.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 29.2%
Free Throws Made 19.6 16.7
Free Throws Attempted 25.4 21.1
Free Throw % 77.2% 78.9%
Ball Control SIU MIZZ
Rebounds 32.3 30.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.9 23.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 7.4
Turnovers 11.5 9.9
Blocked Shots 2.4 5.6
Steals 4.8 6.4
Fouls 18.0 18.6

Playing Style Advantage: Missouri

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SIU MIZZ
Total Possessions 68.4
Effective Scoring Chances 66.2 65.9
% of Possessions with SIU MIZZ
2 Point Attempt 32.9% 48.7%
3 Point Attempt 31.3% 20.5%
Player Fouled 27.1% 26.2%
Turnover 16.9% 14.5%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken SIU MIZZ
Shot Blocked 10.6% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 28.8% 24.5%