NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring RUTG ILL
Points 64.8 79.2
Total Points   144.0
Points From 2-Pointers 38.8 35.8
Points From 3-Pointers 13.9 25.4
Points From Free Throws 12.1 18.0
Shooting RUTG ILL
Field Goals Made 24.0 26.4
Field Goals Attempted 64.5 59.7
Field Goal % 37.2% 44.1%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 48.4 35.4
2 Point Shooting % 40.1% 50.5%
3 Pointers Made 4.6 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 16.1 24.3
3 Point Shooting % 28.7% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 12.1 18.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.9 24.4
Free Throw % 67.7% 73.8%
Ball Control RUTG ILL
Rebounds 34.0 46.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 32.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 13.7
Turnovers 7.9 10.7
Blocked Shots 4.6 4.3
Steals 5.7 4.4
Fouls 15.5 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +1.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats RUTG ILL
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 74.9 74.8
% of Possessions with RUTG ILL
2 Point Attempt 57.3% 40.6%
3 Point Attempt 19.1% 27.9%
Player Fouled 18.0% 21.6%
Turnover 11.0% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken RUTG ILL
Shot Blocked 7.4% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 37.2%