NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring RUTG MIA
Points 66.5 68.3
Total Points   134.8
Points From 2-Pointers 33.9 30.4
Points From 3-Pointers 22.1 27.3
Points From Free Throws 10.5 10.6
Shooting RUTG MIA
Field Goals Made 24.3 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 63.7 59.0
Field Goal % 38.2% 41.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 15.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.8 33.3
2 Point Shooting % 44.9% 45.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 9.1
3 Pointers Attempted 25.9 25.7
3 Point Shooting % 28.5% 35.4%
Free Throws Made 10.5 10.6
Free Throws Attempted 15.5 14.8
Free Throw % 67.7% 71.6%
Ball Control RUTG MIA
Rebounds 38.7 39.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.3 29.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 10.2
Turnovers 10.3 13.4
Blocked Shots 5.3 3.6
Steals 7.8 6.8
Fouls 12.5 11.5

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats RUTG MIA
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 73.4 68.1
% of Possessions with RUTG MIA
2 Point Attempt 44.4% 39.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.4% 30.7%
Player Fouled 16.1% 17.5%
Turnover 14.4% 18.8%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 10.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken RUTG MIA
Shot Blocked 6.3% 8.5%
Offensive Rebound 29.7% 27.9%