NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USI UTM
Points 73.9 80.1
Total Points   154.1
Points From 2-Pointers 32.9 33.0
Points From 3-Pointers 26.8 24.9
Points From Free Throws 14.3 22.2
Shooting USI UTM
Field Goals Made 25.4 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 63.7 56.5
Field Goal % 39.8% 43.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.4 16.5
2 Pointers Attempted 35.9 33.6
2 Point Shooting % 45.8% 49.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.9 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 27.8 23.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.1% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 14.3 22.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.0 29.4
Free Throw % 75.1% 75.6%
Ball Control USI UTM
Rebounds 36.8 39.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.1 31.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 8.7
Turnovers 9.2 9.5
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.5
Steals 5.3 5.1
Fouls 19.6 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: S Indiana

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USI UTM
Total Possessions 74.9
Effective Scoring Chances 75.3 74.1
% of Possessions with USI UTM
2 Point Attempt 41.9% 39.6%
3 Point Attempt 32.5% 27.1%
Player Fouled 19.7% 26.2%
Turnover 12.3% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken USI UTM
Shot Blocked 4.6% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 24.2%