NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCW UNCA
Points 77.4 74.0
Total Points   151.4
Points From 2-Pointers 37.9 35.0
Points From 3-Pointers 22.6 23.3
Points From Free Throws 16.9 15.8
Shooting UNCW UNCA
Field Goals Made 26.5 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.9 53.7
Field Goal % 44.2% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 36.4 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 52.1% 51.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.6 19.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 39.1%
Free Throws Made 16.9 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 21.8 21.0
Free Throw % 77.5% 75.0%
Ball Control UNCW UNCA
Rebounds 35.0 32.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 24.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 8.0
Turnovers 7.8 10.7
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.9
Steals 5.7 3.2
Fouls 17.2 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Wilmgton

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCW UNCA
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 73.1 66.6
% of Possessions with UNCW UNCA
2 Point Attempt 44.3% 43.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 25.3%
Player Fouled 22.0% 24.8%
Turnover 11.2% 15.5%
Opponent Steal 4.7% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCW UNCA
Shot Blocked 5.6% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 32.2% 25.5%