NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCW JMU
Points 73.6 79.7
Total Points   153.2
Points From 2-Pointers 36.1 40.7
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 24.4
Points From Free Throws 18.0 14.5
Shooting UNCW JMU
Field Goals Made 24.5 28.5
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 58.0
Field Goal % 43.4% 49.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 20.4
2 Pointers Attempted 34.4 36.9
2 Point Shooting % 52.4% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 8.1
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 29.4% 38.5%
Free Throws Made 18.0 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 23.2 20.8
Free Throw % 77.5% 69.7%
Ball Control UNCW JMU
Rebounds 32.7 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 10.1
Turnovers 9.4 9.6
Blocked Shots 2.2 2.4
Steals 5.0 5.0
Fouls 15.4 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Wilmgton

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCW JMU
Total Possessions 70.5
Effective Scoring Chances 70.8 71.0
% of Possessions with UNCW JMU
2 Point Attempt 42.4% 45.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.2% 25.9%
Player Fouled 24.1% 21.8%
Turnover 13.3% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCW JMU
Shot Blocked 4.2% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.8% 30.6%