NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STON NDSU
Points 76.8 71.3
Total Points   148.1
Points From 2-Pointers 43.5 31.9
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 27.0
Points From Free Throws 12.5 12.5
Shooting STON NDSU
Field Goals Made 28.7 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 58.7 57.5
Field Goal % 48.8% 43.3%
2 Pointers Made 21.7 16.0
2 Pointers Attempted 41.1 33.9
2 Point Shooting % 52.9% 47.1%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 39.3% 38.0%
Free Throws Made 12.5 12.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.2 16.8
Free Throw % 72.8% 74.1%
Ball Control STON NDSU
Rebounds 34.4 33.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 25.5
Rebounds - Offensive 7.4 7.8
Turnovers 7.5 9.9
Blocked Shots 3.6 0.9
Steals 5.3 3.5
Fouls 14.0 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: N Dakota St

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STON NDSU
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 67.4
% of Possessions with STON NDSU
2 Point Attempt 53.1% 43.1%
3 Point Attempt 22.8% 30.0%
Player Fouled 18.7% 20.1%
Turnover 10.8% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 5.0% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken STON NDSU
Shot Blocked 1.6% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 22.3%