NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FSU NCST
Points 71.0 78.1
Total Points   149.1
Points From 2-Pointers 39.3 39.1
Points From 3-Pointers 16.2 20.2
Points From Free Throws 15.5 18.8
Shooting FSU NCST
Field Goals Made 25.0 26.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 57.8
Field Goal % 43.7% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 39.7 39.2
2 Point Shooting % 49.5% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.4 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 17.6 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 30.6% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 15.5 18.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.0 25.9
Free Throw % 70.5% 72.6%
Ball Control FSU NCST
Rebounds 33.5 37.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.0 26.4
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 11.4
Turnovers 11.5 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.1
Steals 6.2 5.9
Fouls 16.9 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FSU NCST
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 70.8 73.6
% of Possessions with FSU NCST
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 21.1% 21.6%
Player Fouled 22.0% 23.2%
Turnover 15.8% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken FSU NCST
Shot Blocked 5.4% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 26.3% 32.1%