NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTM EKY
Points 77.3 81.9
Total Points   159.1
Points From 2-Pointers 35.6 42.3
Points From 3-Pointers 25.7 27.8
Points From Free Throws 16.0 11.8
Shooting UTM EKY
Field Goals Made 26.4 30.4
Field Goals Attempted 67.8 68.8
Field Goal % 38.9% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 21.1
2 Pointers Attempted 45.7 42.9
2 Point Shooting % 39.0% 49.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 25.9
3 Point Shooting % 38.7% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 16.0 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 17.1
Free Throw % 75.6% 69.3%
Ball Control UTM EKY
Rebounds 41.6 43.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.9 31.6
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 11.4
Turnovers 8.0 7.5
Blocked Shots 2.3 7.3
Steals 4.6 4.6
Fouls 12.5 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: E Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTM EKY
Total Possessions 75.3
Effective Scoring Chances 79.0 79.3
% of Possessions with UTM EKY
2 Point Attempt 50.8% 49.0%
3 Point Attempt 24.6% 29.5%
Player Fouled 18.8% 16.6%
Turnover 10.6% 9.9%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTM EKY
Shot Blocked 10.8% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 27.0% 27.7%