NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTM JVST
Points 74.7 74.4
Total Points   149.0
Points From 2-Pointers 34.0 42.7
Points From 3-Pointers 25.3 18.9
Points From Free Throws 15.3 12.7
Shooting UTM JVST
Field Goals Made 25.4 27.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 63.5
Field Goal % 43.6% 43.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 21.4
2 Pointers Attempted 36.5 42.8
2 Point Shooting % 46.6% 49.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 21.8 20.6
3 Point Shooting % 38.7% 30.6%
Free Throws Made 15.3 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 18.5
Free Throw % 75.6% 68.8%
Ball Control UTM JVST
Rebounds 35.3 38.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.7 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 11.4
Turnovers 10.1 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.3 4.7
Steals 4.7 6.1
Fouls 13.5 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Jksnville St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTM JVST
Total Possessions 72.3
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 75.0
% of Possessions with UTM JVST
2 Point Attempt 44.6% 50.6%
3 Point Attempt 26.7% 24.4%
Player Fouled 21.2% 18.7%
Turnover 14.0% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTM JVST
Shot Blocked 7.6% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 21.7% 29.1%