NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UTM WKU
Points 80.7 86.3
Total Points   167.1
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 47.6
Points From 3-Pointers 30.0 26.0
Points From Free Throws 15.8 12.7
Shooting UTM WKU
Field Goals Made 27.4 32.5
Field Goals Attempted 64.1 69.4
Field Goal % 42.8% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 23.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.2 43.1
2 Point Shooting % 48.1% 55.2%
3 Pointers Made 10.0 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 27.9 26.3
3 Point Shooting % 35.9% 33.0%
Free Throws Made 15.8 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 17.5
Free Throw % 75.6% 72.7%
Ball Control UTM WKU
Rebounds 38.5 40.2
Rebounds - Defensive 30.0 30.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 9.4
Turnovers 11.2 8.9
Blocked Shots 3.3 4.0
Steals 4.9 6.9
Fouls 13.9 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: W Kentucky

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UTM WKU
Total Possessions 79.2
Effective Scoring Chances 76.4 79.7
% of Possessions with UTM WKU
2 Point Attempt 40.6% 48.0%
3 Point Attempt 31.3% 29.2%
Player Fouled 20.1% 17.6%
Turnover 14.1% 11.2%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UTM WKU
Shot Blocked 5.8% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 21.5% 23.8%