NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCG CIT
Points 77.0 66.8
Total Points   143.8
Points From 2-Pointers 34.5 32.2
Points From 3-Pointers 33.6 20.1
Points From Free Throws 8.9 14.5
Shooting UNCG CIT
Field Goals Made 28.5 22.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.4 51.6
Field Goal % 48.7% 44.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 16.1
2 Pointers Attempted 31.0 31.8
2 Point Shooting % 55.7% 50.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.2 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 27.4 19.7
3 Point Shooting % 40.9% 33.9%
Free Throws Made 8.9 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 12.2 20.3
Free Throw % 72.8% 71.4%
Ball Control UNCG CIT
Rebounds 32.6 31.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 23.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 8.0
Turnovers 9.7 11.5
Blocked Shots 3.6 1.7
Steals 7.0 4.7
Fouls 15.8 12.6

Playing Style Advantage: Citadel

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCG CIT
Total Possessions 67.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 63.8
% of Possessions with UNCG CIT
2 Point Attempt 40.4% 41.5%
3 Point Attempt 35.7% 25.7%
Player Fouled 18.8% 23.4%
Turnover 14.4% 17.0%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 10.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCG CIT
Shot Blocked 3.4% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 27.6% 25.1%