NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCG WCU
Points 71.2 72.5
Total Points   143.6
Points From 2-Pointers 34.3 32.8
Points From 3-Pointers 24.8 26.5
Points From Free Throws 12.1 13.1
Shooting UNCG WCU
Field Goals Made 25.4 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 59.6 57.8
Field Goal % 42.6% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.9% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 8.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 23.1
3 Point Shooting % 38.5% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 12.1 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 18.8
Free Throw % 72.8% 70.0%
Ball Control UNCG WCU
Rebounds 34.5 37.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 10.2
Turnovers 7.8 9.3
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.0
Steals 5.2 3.3
Fouls 14.8 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: W Carolina

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCG WCU
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 69.5
% of Possessions with UNCG WCU
2 Point Attempt 48.6% 43.4%
3 Point Attempt 27.4% 29.0%
Player Fouled 21.8% 21.6%
Turnover 11.3% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 4.8% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCG WCU
Shot Blocked 3.5% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.4% 28.6%