NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSU NEB
Points 73.5 69.3
Total Points   142.8
Points From 2-Pointers 37.6 27.2
Points From 3-Pointers 24.5 28.9
Points From Free Throws 11.4 13.2
Shooting MSU NEB
Field Goals Made 27.0 23.2
Field Goals Attempted 62.6 56.2
Field Goal % 43.1% 41.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 13.6
2 Pointers Attempted 39.8 28.1
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 48.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 9.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.9 28.2
3 Point Shooting % 35.7% 34.2%
Free Throws Made 11.4 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 17.4
Free Throw % 72.5% 76.0%
Ball Control MSU NEB
Rebounds 38.9 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.9 7.9
Turnovers 8.7 11.0
Blocked Shots 4.2 2.2
Steals 6.5 4.5
Fouls 13.9 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Nebraska

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSU NEB
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 72.7 66.4
% of Possessions with MSU NEB
2 Point Attempt 48.3% 35.5%
3 Point Attempt 27.8% 35.6%
Player Fouled 18.8% 20.0%
Turnover 12.5% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 6.5% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSU NEB
Shot Blocked 4.0% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 31.4% 22.7%