NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORF HOU
Points 52.6 81.3
Total Points   133.9
Points From 2-Pointers 23.2 32.8
Points From 3-Pointers 13.9 30.7
Points From Free Throws 15.5 17.8
Shooting NORF HOU
Field Goals Made 16.2 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 48.5 57.1
Field Goal % 33.4% 46.6%
2 Pointers Made 11.6 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 32.2 30.7
2 Point Shooting % 35.9% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 4.6 10.2
3 Pointers Attempted 16.3 26.4
3 Point Shooting % 28.4% 38.8%
Free Throws Made 15.5 17.8
Free Throws Attempted 21.7 25.1
Free Throw % 71.8% 71.1%
Ball Control NORF HOU
Rebounds 28.9 41.1
Rebounds - Defensive 19.9 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 14.9
Turnovers 14.2 8.2
Blocked Shots 1.8 6.2
Steals 4.7 7.7
Fouls 16.1 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Houston

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORF HOU
Total Possessions 66.6
Effective Scoring Chances 61.4 73.3
% of Possessions with NORF HOU
2 Point Attempt 41.3% 37.4%
3 Point Attempt 20.9% 32.1%
Player Fouled 24.1% 24.2%
Turnover 21.3% 12.4%
Opponent Steal 11.6% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORF HOU
Shot Blocked 10.9% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 42.8%