NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSU ILL
Points 72.8 75.4
Total Points   148.2
Points From 2-Pointers 44.3 34.1
Points From 3-Pointers 17.0 25.3
Points From Free Throws 11.5 16.0
Shooting MSU ILL
Field Goals Made 27.8 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 63.4 58.1
Field Goal % 43.9% 43.8%
2 Pointers Made 22.2 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 48.1 33.4
2 Point Shooting % 46.1% 51.1%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 15.3 24.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 11.5 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 21.7
Free Throw % 72.5% 73.8%
Ball Control MSU ILL
Rebounds 34.7 38.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 11.0
Turnovers 6.9 9.2
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.3
Steals 5.3 3.4
Fouls 15.8 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.9 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSU ILL
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 72.7 71.3
% of Possessions with MSU ILL
2 Point Attempt 59.5% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 18.9% 30.2%
Player Fouled 18.7% 22.8%
Turnover 10.0% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 4.9% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSU ILL
Shot Blocked 5.7% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 30.8%