NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCG VMI
Points 84.7 62.7
Total Points   147.4
Points From 2-Pointers 37.9 30.6
Points From 3-Pointers 34.1 19.8
Points From Free Throws 12.7 12.3
Shooting UNCG VMI
Field Goals Made 30.3 21.9
Field Goals Attempted 63.6 55.7
Field Goal % 47.7% 39.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 15.3
2 Pointers Attempted 35.7 34.2
2 Point Shooting % 53.1% 44.7%
3 Pointers Made 11.4 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 27.9 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 40.8% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 12.7 12.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.5 17.5
Free Throw % 72.8% 70.4%
Ball Control UNCG VMI
Rebounds 40.0 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 28.8 24.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 7.8
Turnovers 9.7 14.4
Blocked Shots 3.0 1.6
Steals 9.2 4.7
Fouls 14.8 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: VMI

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCG VMI
Total Possessions 73.3
Effective Scoring Chances 74.9 66.7
% of Possessions with UNCG VMI
2 Point Attempt 41.9% 41.6%
3 Point Attempt 32.8% 26.1%
Player Fouled 19.7% 20.2%
Turnover 13.2% 19.6%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 12.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCG VMI
Shot Blocked 2.9% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 31.3% 21.4%