NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCG CHAT
Points 77.0 75.0
Total Points   152.0
Points From 2-Pointers 27.8 25.0
Points From 3-Pointers 38.2 35.3
Points From Free Throws 10.9 14.7
Shooting UNCG CHAT
Field Goals Made 26.7 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 62.3 54.5
Field Goal % 42.8% 44.5%
2 Pointers Made 13.9 12.5
2 Pointers Attempted 30.8 23.1
2 Point Shooting % 45.2% 54.0%
3 Pointers Made 12.7 11.8
3 Pointers Attempted 31.5 31.4
3 Point Shooting % 40.4% 37.5%
Free Throws Made 10.9 14.7
Free Throws Attempted 14.9 19.6
Free Throw % 72.8% 75.3%
Ball Control UNCG CHAT
Rebounds 34.9 35.8
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 27.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 8.8
Turnovers 8.1 11.1
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.2
Steals 7.0 4.9
Fouls 14.9 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Grnsboro

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCG CHAT
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 71.7 66.7
% of Possessions with UNCG CHAT
2 Point Attempt 38.1% 29.4%
3 Point Attempt 39.0% 39.8%
Player Fouled 20.0% 21.5%
Turnover 11.8% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 10.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCG CHAT
Shot Blocked 4.1% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 28.6% 26.8%