NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSU HALL
Points 71.2 66.7
Total Points   137.9
Points From 2-Pointers 39.0 32.8
Points From 3-Pointers 21.8 20.0
Points From Free Throws 10.3 14.0
Shooting MSU HALL
Field Goals Made 26.8 23.1
Field Goals Attempted 61.2 55.7
Field Goal % 43.7% 41.4%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 40.3 35.2
2 Point Shooting % 48.3% 46.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.9 20.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 32.4%
Free Throws Made 10.3 14.0
Free Throws Attempted 14.3 17.3
Free Throw % 72.5% 80.8%
Ball Control MSU HALL
Rebounds 34.6 35.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 25.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 9.8
Turnovers 9.4 12.2
Blocked Shots 4.8 4.5
Steals 7.4 5.5
Fouls 14.0 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan St

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSU HALL
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 69.6 66.2
% of Possessions with MSU HALL
2 Point Attempt 49.9% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 25.9% 25.5%
Player Fouled 19.7% 20.3%
Turnover 13.7% 17.9%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 10.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSU HALL
Shot Blocked 8.2% 8.0%
Offensive Rebound 28.9% 29.0%