NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNCG ARK
Points 72.5 76.6
Total Points   149.1
Points From 2-Pointers 31.2 34.7
Points From 3-Pointers 27.3 19.0
Points From Free Throws 13.9 22.9
Shooting UNCG ARK
Field Goals Made 24.7 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 60.3 51.3
Field Goal % 41.0% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 15.6 17.3
2 Pointers Attempted 36.1 32.8
2 Point Shooting % 43.2% 52.9%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 24.2 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 34.3%
Free Throws Made 13.9 22.9
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 30.0
Free Throw % 72.8% 76.5%
Ball Control UNCG ARK
Rebounds 34.2 35.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 7.9
Turnovers 10.7 10.5
Blocked Shots 2.0 4.0
Steals 5.9 5.8
Fouls 20.4 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Grnsboro

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNCG ARK
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 71.9 69.6
% of Possessions with UNCG ARK
2 Point Attempt 42.9% 40.5%
3 Point Attempt 28.8% 22.9%
Player Fouled 22.2% 28.2%
Turnover 14.8% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNCG ARK
Shot Blocked 7.9% 3.4%
Offensive Rebound 27.2% 24.9%