NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORF MISS
Points 65.7 78.9
Total Points   144.6
Points From 2-Pointers 34.1 31.0
Points From 3-Pointers 16.5 29.0
Points From Free Throws 15.0 18.9
Shooting NORF MISS
Field Goals Made 22.6 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 53.0
Field Goal % 39.3% 47.5%
2 Pointers Made 17.0 15.5
2 Pointers Attempted 40.7 29.2
2 Point Shooting % 41.9% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 5.5 9.7
3 Pointers Attempted 16.8 23.9
3 Point Shooting % 32.9% 40.6%
Free Throws Made 15.0 18.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 25.9
Free Throw % 71.8% 73.0%
Ball Control NORF MISS
Rebounds 32.6 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 21.2 26.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 10.8
Turnovers 11.2 10.9
Blocked Shots 2.0 5.9
Steals 6.6 6.2
Fouls 17.3 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Mississippi

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORF MISS
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 69.8 69.5
% of Possessions with NORF MISS
2 Point Attempt 48.8% 35.9%
3 Point Attempt 20.1% 29.4%
Player Fouled 20.8% 24.9%
Turnover 16.1% 15.7%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 9.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORF MISS
Shot Blocked 11.2% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 30.3% 33.8%