NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NORF UNCW
Points 68.8 76.3
Total Points   145.1
Points From 2-Pointers 37.3 28.5
Points From 3-Pointers 16.7 28.2
Points From Free Throws 14.8 19.5
Shooting NORF UNCW
Field Goals Made 24.2 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 53.4
Field Goal % 44.8% 44.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 14.3
2 Pointers Attempted 38.2 26.4
2 Point Shooting % 48.9% 54.0%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 9.4
3 Pointers Attempted 15.9 27.0
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 14.8 19.5
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 25.2
Free Throw % 71.8% 77.5%
Ball Control NORF UNCW
Rebounds 31.7 34.5
Rebounds - Defensive 22.1 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 10.8
Turnovers 10.2 9.3
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.4
Steals 4.6 4.7
Fouls 17.6 15.9

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Wilmgton

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NORF UNCW
Total Possessions 67.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 69.1
% of Possessions with NORF UNCW
2 Point Attempt 48.9% 33.3%
3 Point Attempt 20.4% 34.0%
Player Fouled 23.5% 26.1%
Turnover 15.1% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken NORF UNCW
Shot Blocked 4.5% 4.2%
Offensive Rebound 28.8% 32.9%