NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SJSU ARIZ
Points 64.5 89.9
Total Points   154.4
Points From 2-Pointers 32.3 47.3
Points From 3-Pointers 24.9 24.1
Points From Free Throws 7.3 18.5
Shooting SJSU ARIZ
Field Goals Made 24.4 31.7
Field Goals Attempted 60.8 59.2
Field Goal % 40.2% 53.5%
2 Pointers Made 16.1 23.7
2 Pointers Attempted 34.7 40.3
2 Point Shooting % 46.5% 58.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 26.1 18.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 42.5%
Free Throws Made 7.3 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 10.7 26.0
Free Throw % 68.6% 71.0%
Ball Control SJSU ARIZ
Rebounds 25.3 44.5
Rebounds - Defensive 19.6 32.2
Rebounds - Offensive 5.6 12.3
Turnovers 11.1 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.7
Steals 4.7 5.9
Fouls 16.6 12.3

Playing Style Advantage: San Jose St

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SJSU ARIZ
Total Possessions 72.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.8 75.3
% of Possessions with SJSU ARIZ
2 Point Attempt 43.7% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 32.9% 22.1%
Player Fouled 17.0% 23.0%
Turnover 15.3% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken SJSU ARIZ
Shot Blocked 6.3% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 14.9% 38.5%