NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MSU KSU
Points 71.0 63.2
Total Points   134.2
Points From 2-Pointers 37.8 27.8
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 21.1
Points From Free Throws 14.9 14.3
Shooting MSU KSU
Field Goals Made 25.0 20.9
Field Goals Attempted 60.9 52.2
Field Goal % 41.1% 40.1%
2 Pointers Made 18.9 13.9
2 Pointers Attempted 42.3 29.3
2 Point Shooting % 44.7% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 18.6 22.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.7% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 14.9 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 19.9
Free Throw % 72.5% 71.9%
Ball Control MSU KSU
Rebounds 37.3 35.7
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 12.4 9.1
Turnovers 8.4 14.1
Blocked Shots 4.4 3.4
Steals 8.1 4.1
Fouls 15.8 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MSU KSU
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 73.5 64.5
% of Possessions with MSU KSU
2 Point Attempt 50.8% 36.5%
3 Point Attempt 22.4% 28.4%
Player Fouled 22.7% 22.8%
Turnover 12.1% 20.3%
Opponent Steal 5.9% 11.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MSU KSU
Shot Blocked 6.7% 7.3%
Offensive Rebound 31.8% 26.8%