NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring RICH DAY
Points 65.4 70.0
Total Points   135.5
Points From 2-Pointers 35.2 29.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.4 28.0
Points From Free Throws 7.9 12.2
Shooting RICH DAY
Field Goals Made 25.0 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 54.8
Field Goal % 43.8% 44.3%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 14.9
2 Pointers Attempted 35.2 30.1
2 Point Shooting % 50.0% 49.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 9.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.0 24.7
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 37.9%
Free Throws Made 7.9 12.2
Free Throws Attempted 11.0 16.3
Free Throw % 71.6% 74.7%
Ball Control RICH DAY
Rebounds 30.1 36.2
Rebounds - Defensive 25.3 28.8
Rebounds - Offensive 4.8 7.5
Turnovers 7.9 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.5 2.7
Steals 5.0 4.0
Fouls 12.8 11.5

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats RICH DAY
Total Possessions 66.4
Effective Scoring Chances 63.3 64.7
% of Possessions with RICH DAY
2 Point Attempt 48.7% 40.2%
3 Point Attempt 30.4% 33.0%
Player Fouled 17.3% 19.2%
Turnover 11.9% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken RICH DAY
Shot Blocked 4.9% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 14.4% 22.8%