NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring RICH GMU
Points 64.9 64.0
Total Points   128.8
Points From 2-Pointers 30.9 31.5
Points From 3-Pointers 22.9 20.1
Points From Free Throws 11.1 12.4
Shooting RICH GMU
Field Goals Made 23.1 22.4
Field Goals Attempted 53.7 54.0
Field Goal % 43.0% 41.5%
2 Pointers Made 15.5 15.8
2 Pointers Attempted 32.9 33.2
2 Point Shooting % 46.9% 47.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 32.2%
Free Throws Made 11.1 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 15.5 16.7
Free Throw % 71.6% 74.1%
Ball Control RICH GMU
Rebounds 29.8 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 5.2 9.2
Turnovers 8.2 10.6
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.3
Steals 5.9 4.0
Fouls 13.4 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Geo Mason

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats RICH GMU
Total Possessions 65.8
Effective Scoring Chances 62.8 64.4
% of Possessions with RICH GMU
2 Point Attempt 45.8% 43.6%
3 Point Attempt 28.9% 27.3%
Player Fouled 21.7% 20.3%
Turnover 12.5% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 6.1% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken RICH GMU
Shot Blocked 4.4% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 15.7% 27.3%