NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring RICH TOL
Points 79.7 69.9
Total Points   149.6
Points From 2-Pointers 47.0 38.2
Points From 3-Pointers 22.6 18.4
Points From Free Throws 10.1 13.4
Shooting RICH TOL
Field Goals Made 31.0 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.3 59.1
Field Goal % 54.1% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made 23.5 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 37.5 41.3
2 Point Shooting % 62.7% 46.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 19.8 17.8
3 Point Shooting % 38.0% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 10.1 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 14.1 18.0
Free Throw % 71.6% 74.2%
Ball Control RICH TOL
Rebounds 32.1 32.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 4.7 8.7
Turnovers 9.3 9.5
Blocked Shots 3.7 1.5
Steals 5.6 4.9
Fouls 13.8 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Richmond

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats RICH TOL
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 65.8 69.7
% of Possessions with RICH TOL
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 51.2%
3 Point Attempt 26.2% 22.0%
Player Fouled 18.8% 19.5%
Turnover 13.3% 13.5%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken RICH TOL
Shot Blocked 2.6% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 16.6% 24.2%