NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring FAIR STON
Points 73.9 74.0
Total Points   147.8
Points From 2-Pointers 29.3 39.4
Points From 3-Pointers 32.7 23.3
Points From Free Throws 11.9 11.3
Shooting FAIR STON
Field Goals Made 25.6 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 62.1 57.5
Field Goal % 41.1% 47.7%
2 Pointers Made 14.6 19.7
2 Pointers Attempted 32.3 36.1
2 Point Shooting % 45.3% 54.6%
3 Pointers Made 10.9 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 29.8 21.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 11.9 11.3
Free Throws Attempted 16.0 15.5
Free Throw % 74.0% 72.8%
Ball Control FAIR STON
Rebounds 33.7 37.6
Rebounds - Defensive 24.1 29.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 8.5
Turnovers 7.9 11.0
Blocked Shots 1.4 2.5
Steals 7.6 4.5
Fouls 12.4 12.3

Playing Style Advantage: Fairfield

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats FAIR STON
Total Possessions 70.1
Effective Scoring Chances 71.9 67.6
% of Possessions with FAIR STON
2 Point Attempt 40.0% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 37.0% 27.1%
Player Fouled 17.5% 17.7%
Turnover 11.2% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 10.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken FAIR STON
Shot Blocked 4.4% 2.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.9% 26.0%