NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ASU USC
Points 67.5 74.3
Total Points   141.8
Points From 2-Pointers 31.4 36.1
Points From 3-Pointers 22.9 23.9
Points From Free Throws 13.2 14.3
Shooting ASU USC
Field Goals Made 23.3 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.0 57.2
Field Goal % 39.6% 45.5%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 35.2 35.0
2 Point Shooting % 44.7% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 22.2
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 13.2 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 20.6
Free Throw % 65.3% 69.5%
Ball Control ASU USC
Rebounds 33.5 40.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 31.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 9.5
Turnovers 10.9 13.1
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.6
Steals 7.9 6.4
Fouls 15.3 15.1

Playing Style Advantage: Arizona St

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ASU USC
Total Possessions 73.6
Effective Scoring Chances 71.1 70.0
% of Possessions with ASU USC
2 Point Attempt 42.2% 41.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.6% 26.3%
Player Fouled 20.5% 20.8%
Turnover 14.8% 17.8%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 10.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken ASU USC
Shot Blocked 6.4% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 21.1% 27.4%