NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UNC IND
Points 78.9 68.4
Total Points   147.3
Points From 2-Pointers 34.8 41.2
Points From 3-Pointers 27.2 14.4
Points From Free Throws 16.9 12.8
Shooting UNC IND
Field Goals Made 26.5 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 64.6 58.2
Field Goal % 41.0% 43.6%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 20.6
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 42.3
2 Point Shooting % 44.1% 48.7%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 4.8
3 Pointers Attempted 25.2 15.9
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 30.2%
Free Throws Made 16.9 12.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.4 19.4
Free Throw % 75.4% 65.9%
Ball Control UNC IND
Rebounds 41.7 35.6
Rebounds - Defensive 28.9 28.1
Rebounds - Offensive 12.8 7.4
Turnovers 7.5 10.5
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.8
Steals 6.7 3.5
Fouls 16.5 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UNC IND
Total Possessions 72.6
Effective Scoring Chances 77.9 69.6
% of Possessions with UNC IND
2 Point Attempt 45.4% 51.9%
3 Point Attempt 28.9% 19.5%
Player Fouled 21.2% 22.7%
Turnover 10.3% 14.4%
Opponent Steal 4.9% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UNC IND
Shot Blocked 6.7% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 31.3% 20.5%